Yevgeny Prigozhin: Vladimir Putin has relied on military contractors to claim victories in Ukraine, but the Wagner leader’s threats against the country’s military leadership demonstrate an alarming escalation of tensions.
Tens of thousands of mercenaries from a shadowy group managed by a businessman and longtime associate of Vladimir Putin have provided support for Russian troops fighting in Ukraine.
The Wagner Group is a private military company controlled by Yevgeny Prigozhin that gained experience in 2014 with deployments to Crimea and eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region, and has since sent soldiers to several conflicts in the Middle East, Africa, and Syria.
Wagner proved indispensable in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but an apparent power struggle between the Kremlin and the outspoken Mr. Prigozhin has resulted in Moscow clipping the group’s wings.
Frictions reached a crisis point on June 23, when Mr. Prigozhin accused Sergei Shoigu, the defence minister of his country, of “destroying” his fighters and fabricating falsehoods to justify the invasion of Ukraine. In an explosive Telegram message, Mr. Prigozhin urged armed rebellion against the “evil” of the Kremlin’s top commanders.
The leader of the Wagner Group did not target Putin in his tirade, instead alleging that Mr. Shoigu had deceived the Russian president for more than a year and over 350,000 casualties in the war — a significant portion of which Mr. Prigozhin’s group is responsible for.
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“The war was necessary… so Shoigu could become a Marshal and earn a second Hero Star… The purpose of the war was not to demilitarise or de-Nazify Ukraine. It was required for an additional star, Mr. Prigozhin said via Telegram, as reported by the BBC.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov verified to Moscow’s Interfax news agency that Vladimir Putin has been briefed on the matter. According to the Tass news agency, the Federal Security Service (FSB) of the Kremlin has opened a criminal case against Mr. Prigozhin and asked him to “cease illegal actions.”
The defence ministry has denied the allegations, labelling them “an informational provocation.”
The Kremlin’s warnings have had no effect on Mr. Prigozhin’s threats. In a new Telegram message, he warned that his forces had crossed the Ukrainian border and were prepared “to destroy anyone who stood in their way” as they entered the city of Rostov-on-Don in Russia.
However, as of late Friday, June 24th, there were no solid indications that the Wagner Group was advancing on Rostov.
The international community was attempting to determine whether Mr. Prigozhin’s alleged “mutiny” posed a significant threat to the status quo in Moscow, though many agreed that the open opposition – and Mr. Putin’s initial failure to address it publicly – could serve to undermine the administration.
Mr. Prigozhin, a 61-year-old ex-convict also known as “Putin’s chef” because his catering business has served the Russian president and the Kremlin’s armed forces, denied all ties to the group until September of last year, when he proclaimed he was “proud” to be its founder.
He claimed he founded Wagner to aid separatists supported by Russia in the Donbas conflict.
Mr. Prigozhin stated, “I cleaned the old weapons myself, organised the bulletproof vests myself, and found specialists who could assist me.” “At that moment, on May 1, 2014, a group of patriots was born, which would later become known as the Wagner Battalion.”
Dmitry Utkin, a former Russian intelligence officer, is reportedly a co-founder who remains near the group’s leadership.
Wagner has been accused of human rights violations in Ukraine, Syria, Libya, the Central African Republic, Sudan, Mali, and Mozambique since its formation.
It is believed that the group also works for the Burkina Faso government against an Islamist insurgency.
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Prior to admitting his involvement, Mr. Prigozhin had a history of suing Russian and Western media outlets that claimed he had connections to the organisation. He has asserted that his secretive stance was intended to protect the Wagner soldiers.
As the Wagner group rose to prominence in the Ukraine conflict, Mr. Prigozhin was ultimately compelled to admit his ties to them. According to British intelligence, there are 50,000 Wagner personnel active in Ukraine, representing a quarter of Russia’s total strength.
Military contractors are nothing new, but according to military analysts, the Kremlin has relied extensively on Wagner due to the heavy losses sustained by official Russian forces during the war and recruitment difficulties.
The UK’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) first reported that Wagner had been deployed in Ukraine on 28 March 2022, less than a month into the conflict and after Russian losses had started to slow the initial assault’s momentum.
Since then, Wagner has played a significant role in the capture of towns such as Soledar, Popasna, and Lysychansk, demonstrating relative operational competence while the Kremlin has been compelled to repeatedly shuffle command of its own forces due to losses.
Mr. Prigozhin has taken efforts to claim Wagner’s victories in Ukraine, putting him occasionally at odds with the Kremlin line. He has even accused the Russian Ministry of Defence of claiming credit for Wagner’s achievements.
In the battle for Soledar, a small town subject to an intense assault as part of Russia’s ongoing campaign to take over the city of Bakhmut, Mr. Prigozhin claimed that his mercenaries had defeated Ukrainian forces days before the Kremlin claimed the same.
Bakhmut is prized by Moscow because its conquest would strengthen Russian forces in their pursuit of capturing all of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions that comprise the Donbas.
On the 12th of February, Mr. Prigozhin announced that Wagner had captured the village of Krasna Hora near Bakhmut, making no mention of Russian forces as Moscow launched a significant offensive aimed at Donetsk and several other frontline settlements.
Mr. Prigozhin’s political ambitions have been the subject of much speculation, and there are indications that Mr. Putin is sensitive to any potential challenges posed by his erstwhile chef.
The Kremlin has taken steps to remove Mr. Prigozhin’s wings, ordering him to cease his public criticism of the defence ministry and advising state-run media not to mention his or Wagner’s names.
Since then, Mr. Prigozhin has confirmed that he was also stripped of the authority to recruit inmates from prisons – a vital source of recruits for Wagner’s forces – ceding the authority to the government for its own forces.
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What’s Next?
Former Kremlin adviser Sergei Markov, who retains contacts in political circles, stated that the Russian government extracted a promise from Mr. Prigozhin that he would not form his own political movement or join a parliamentary party unless asked to do so by officials.
Mr. Markov stated, “They are a little afraid of him and find him inconvenient.”
The organisation, formerly known as PMC Wagner, relocated its headquarters to an imposing glass tower in St. Petersburg, which also serves as a technology centre and displays advanced armaments along grey corridors lined with camouflaged personnel.
Former members of the mercenary group, including Andrei Medvedev, who sought asylum in Norway in January after deserting a Wagner regiment in Ukraine, have recently provided unsettling accounts of group life.
The 26-year-old claimed that sergeants were merciless in their recruitment efforts.
“They would round up those who did not want to fight and shoot them in front of newcomers,” he claimed in an interview with CNN.
“They brought in two prisoners who refused to fight, shot them in front of everyone, and buried them in the trenches that the trainees had dug.”
The Department of Defence stated in July 2017 that Wagner was lowering recruitment standards to include individuals previously on a blacklist.
Mr. Medvedev asserted that, after serving in the Russian military, he joined Wagner as a volunteer. He stated that Wagner soldiers were frequently sent into combat without clear instructions.
Two former Wagner soldiers captured by Ukraine recounted harrowing losses in attacks reminiscent of First World War assaults to CNN.
One participant recalled his first assault near the village of Bilohorivka in Luhansk: “There were ninety of us. Mortar fire killed sixty in that initial assault. A few were still wounded.”
The other combatant claimed to have participated in an assault for Lysychansk on the border of Luhansk and Donetsk.
The initial strides into the forest were difficult due to the widespread landmines. Seven of the ten men were slain instantly, he said.
The conflict lasted five days, he said. “There are no emotions associated with it. Wave after wave only. Four hundred [Wagner combatants] were brought there, followed by an ever-increasing number.”
On February 14, footage appeared to show a Russian convict who fought for Wagner being beaten to death with a sledgehammer after being accused of attempting to flee the conflict.
The Labour Party of the United Kingdom is the latest political organisation to demand that the Wagner Group be designated as a terrorist organisation in response to its barbaric actions in Ukraine and elsewhere.
Following the one-year anniversary of the start of the war, the group once again made headlines in early March, when Mr. Prigozhin once more took to Telegram to undermine Moscow by claiming that the entire Russian frontline in Ukraine would be in jeopardy if his soldiers are finally forced to retreat from Bakhmut due to “ammunition hunger”, an apparent plea for more resources.
“The entire front will collapse if Wagner withdraws from Bakhmut now,” he said in a four-minute video posted to the encrypted app. “The circumstances will not be favourable for all military formations defending Russian interests.
“If we retreat, we will forever be remembered as the people who took the decisive step towards losing the war.” This is the precise problem with ammunition shortages.”
According to reports, Russian personnel have been reduced to hand-to-hand combat with shovels because of a lack of weapons and ammunition.
The fighting has been intensive around Bakhmut for months, but locals who had remained despite the grave risk to their lives have finally fled as the Ukrainian military’s withdrawal appeared inevitable following a valiant fightback.
In light of Mr. Prigozhin’s rejection of Russia’s primary justification for invading Ukraine and the potential repercussions of his stance, the future of the Wagner Group and his involvement in the war are currently uncertain.
