Toronto’s Taylor Swift Tickets: There was never going to be much of a chance that one could get a ticket to see Taylor Swift on her Eras Tour in the country of Canada. The enormous amount of anticipation and rivalry, the modifications made to the platform to prevent bots from participating, and the fact that many Canadians appear to still be spending meant that the stakes were quite high.
We have calculated the odds of acquiring an access code for Eras tickets in Toronto, based on The Globe and Mail’s Very Unofficial Math, to help you feel less guilty about missing out on the event (and to make sure those who obtained tickets realise how lucky they are). This will help you feel less bad about missing out on the show.
Toronto’s Taylor Swift Tickets: No luck getting Taylor Swift tickets in Toronto?
First, let’s talk about how many people the Rogers Centre can seat. Depending on the configuration, a concert can have anywhere from 40,000 to 50,000 attendees. Taking into account that there is no floor seating for Blue Jays games, which have a capacity of 41,500, we will assume that the Rogers Centre is capable of accommodating 50,000 lucky people for an Eras concert. Swift just confirmed that she will be performing six times in Toronto, raising the total number of performances she will be doing throughout her time in Canada to an estimated 300,000.
And if Ticketmaster was giving access codes to registered Verified Fans, and assuming that each one buys all four of their allocated tickets, that would mean that on Tuesday, August 7, at 7 p.m. Eastern Time, it would have sent out 75,000 emails with codes and passwords.
This estimate does not take into account the number of tickets that have been saved for members of the loyalty rewards programme offered by the Royal Bank of Canada or any other programme.
Eric Apler, a freelance music publicist, stated Wednesday on iHeartRadio’s The Vassy Kapelos Show that, according to one estimate, “31 million people submitted to get a wait-list code.” Amanda Galbraith was the guest host for the show.
According to Apler’s estimation, if 75,000 emails were sent out, the probability of receiving an access code would be 1 in 413.
Ticketmaster’s minimum age requirement for creating an account is 13, and Statistics Canada releases information in five-year increments. In another hypothetical situation in which we do not know how many Verified Fan registrations there were, we can speculate that your chances of getting an access code were one in 438 due to the fact that there are 32,859,326 Canadians who are over the age of 15 (Ticketmaster’s minimum age requirement for creating an account is 13). (Let’s also assume that in this hypothetical situation, no Americans tried to acquire Eras Tour tickets to Canadian gigs, as Canada was given 53 of its own performances.)
If your social circle consists of between 413 and 438 people, there is a good chance that you know someone who was given a code. If you have fewer friends than that, your chances of succeeding may be slim.
According to reports by Stephanie Marotta of The Globe’s Stephanie Marotta, you also need to take into account the possibility that some fans registered for more than one presale code. Many of these fans used multiple e-mail addresses, while some even posted recordings of excel spreadsheets documenting the registration process.
If it makes you feel any better, the odds of acquiring an access code for the Eras Tour tickets were substantially greater than the odds of winning Lotto 6/49’s Classic Jackpot, which are around 1 in 14 million. If that makes you feel any better, we apologise for any inconvenience this may have caused you.
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